Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
